Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.021693 0.024640 0.027850 0.031609 0.035892 0.040623 0.046249
2025-03-16 0.016680 0.020614 0.025282 0.031237 0.038646 0.047576 0.059186
2025-03-23 0.014503 0.018975 0.024598 0.032202 0.042247 0.055102 0.072870
2025-03-30 0.012246 0.016779 0.022750 0.031217 0.042962 0.058747 0.081690
2025-04-06 0.010720 0.015284 0.021545 0.030795 0.044183 0.062959 0.091474
2025-04-13 0.009281 0.013706 0.019997 0.029637 0.044125 0.065229 0.098562
2025-04-20 0.008684 0.013252 0.019965 0.030608 0.047178 0.072187 0.113172
2025-04-27 0.008124 0.012777 0.019828 0.031365 0.049924 0.078874 0.127972
2025-05-04 0.007681 0.012426 0.019828 0.032302 0.052993 0.086290 0.144616
2025-05-11 0.007037 0.011686 0.019132 0.032028 0.054039 0.090495 0.156310
2025-05-18 0.006533 0.011121 0.018657 0.032055 0.055552 0.095557 0.169891
2025-05-25 0.006016 0.010482 0.017996 0.031687 0.056325 0.099383 0.181608
2025-06-01 0.005709 0.010188 0.017911 0.032344 0.059015 0.106896 0.200956
2025-06-08 0.005272 0.009626 0.017312 0.032024 0.059908 0.111277 0.214959
2025-06-15 0.005073 0.009474 0.017424 0.033010 0.063301 0.120548 0.239253
2025-06-22 0.004618 0.008804 0.016525 0.032000 0.062775 0.122321 0.248892
2025-06-29 0.004284 0.008333 0.015957 0.031567 0.063318 0.126179 0.263088
2025-07-06 0.003891 0.007712 0.015049 0.030379 0.062227 0.126669 0.270289
2025-07-13 0.003784 0.007649 0.015220 0.031375 0.065689 0.136710 0.298841
2025-07-20 0.003659 0.007538 0.015284 0.032152 0.068755 0.146194 0.327145
2025-07-27 0.003560 0.007471 0.015431 0.033112 0.072296 0.157000 0.359520
2025-08-03 0.003347 0.007147 0.015019 0.032832 0.073089 0.161889 0.378814
2025-08-10 0.003180 0.006904 0.014759 0.032859 0.074568 0.168421 0.402622